June 1 marks the start of hurricane season in the Southeast, and this year’s storm forecast looks to be one of the worst on record.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration 2024 hurricane season report, released on Thursday, warns that the Atlantic Ocean is currently at temperatures that are typically not seen until August.
As a result, it anticipates that this could lead to between 17 and 25 total named storms—that’s storms with winds of 39 mph or higher. It predicts that four to seven of those will be Category 3, 4, or 5 major hurricanes with winds of more than 111 mph.
This news has set off its own flurry of concern, with media outlets such as the Miami Herald fretting over how this forecast is the “highest ever issued.”
It’s enough to make anyone wonder: Why would anyone dare to live in a hurricane-prone area at all?
Should you buy a home where a hurricane might hit?
For many homebuyers, climate concerns loom like a dark cloud as they navigate where they want to live.
According to a 2024 Realtor.com® survey, 70% of homeowners and sellers consider the potential impact of natural disasters and climate events while they’re purchasing a home. Just under half even said they let climate events determine where they would move.
Homebuyers have good reason to be concerned: In 2024, approximately 18.1% of homes in the country face potential damage from wind events like hurricanes and tornadoes.
According to NOAA, the cities most at risk for hurricanes are Miami and Key West, FL, both of which face a 16% chance of getting hit every year. This is followed by Cape Hatteras, NC (15%), Tampa, and New Orleans (both 11%).
But even though Florida holds three of the top five spots at risk of hurricanes, it still continues to be one of the most popular places to move. In 2023, Florida boasted four of the five fastest-growing cities in the U.S.
“Despite the risks, many people buy property in Florida due to its attractive lifestyle and natural beauty,” says Realtor.com economist Jiayi Xu. “In addition, Florida has a diverse economy that offers numerous job opportunities, a draw to many. Furthermore, Florida is one of the few states with no state income tax, which can be a significant financial advantage for residents. Additionally, property values in Florida tend to appreciate consistently over time, making buying property here a potentially good investment.”
Another note of hope for homebuyers: Florida is not uniformly at risk of hurricanes, with the danger varying by area.
“Choosing a property in regions less prone to severe hurricanes can mitigate risk,” points out Xu. “Realtor.comprovidesproperty-specific environmental risk scores, which include hurricanes and floods. Prospective homeowners can leverage these scores to gauge climate-related risks across various locales, aiding them in pinpointing ‘safer’ areas prior to finalizing their choice.”
Between 1851 and 2022, 120 hurricanes hit Florida. Northeast Florida had the least number of incidences, with only 28 hurricanes, compared with 48 in Southeast Florida, 51 in Northwest Florida, and 66 in Southeast Florida.
Some agents recommend moving to Central Florida or the northeastern part of the state if hurricanes are a concern. Certain metros—such as Orlando, Leesburg, Kissimmee, and Lake City—have topped several lists of places considered “safer” to live in Florida than others.
“The only really safe area is one in which they don’t have those kinds of storms—which would be more toward the Western region of the country or the desert communities, of course,” says Florida real estate agent Cara Ameer. “Going inland is certainly a bit better. But even those areas can be low-lying and prone to flooding, so that’s not always a guarantee.”
Ameer even knows of people who’ve lived inland and experienced more damage in certain storms than others.
Orlando has also encountered its fair share of damage as storms often crisscross the state, she adds.
Aside from flooding, flying debris can inflict major damage on a house.
“I have also lived through numerous tropical storms and hurricanes myself, and the biggest thing I observed was the amount of tree debris from these kinds of storms,” says Ameer. “You have lots of downed branches that become projectiles and risk causing damage to the home, roof, windows, skylights.”
Bottom line: When it comes to hurricanes, nowhere in Florida may be 100% safe.
“It’s hard to say that Florida truly has safer areas from hurricanes,” says Ameer. “Florida is a hurricane-prone state no matter where you live, due to its geographic location and tropical climate. Given that it has water on three sides, residents really risk exposure from both the west and east coasts of Florida as well as the water south of Miami.”
How hurricanes affect the homebuying process
Hurricanes can complicate how buyers and sellers navigate real estate in Florida and other risky areas.
“I have sold many homes to buyers in Northeast Florida throughout my 23-year career there, and just about everything was in a hurricane-prone area,” Ameer says. “Buyers relocating to the area [are often] understandably nervous.”
Even lenders can be cautious.
“I was in the middle of a few transactions during two major hurricanes whereby the buyers were buying homes and their lenders wanted an inspection to verify there was no damage to the home that could materially affect their ability to get a loan,” Ameer recalls. “We sent back the home inspector in those cases to evaluate the properties and look for any signs of damage, wind-driven rain, roof damage, leaks.”
Wherever you’re home shopping, understanding the environmental risks you’ll encounter can help you make smart decisions about where to buy.
To help, Realtor.com offers “risk scores” and maps to illustrate a home’s risk exposure to floods, extreme heat, hurricanes, and wildfires.
“Buyers need to look at if the property is in a flood zone, and if so, is it in a zone requiring flood insurance, what is the proximity to any kind of water besides just the ocean—lakes, streams, rivers, canals, manmade ponds—as these can all overflow, could potentially impact the property where it is located,” Ameer explains. “You also want to see if the property sits on or near a marsh or any kind of tidal waterways.”
Homebuyers should also ask home sellers about their property’s history with hurricanes.
“Ask the sellers of any homes you are considering if they had any prior issues with flooding or water intrusion, and get details on what caused that,” Ameer continues. “You also want to check the insurance history on the home and see if there had been any prior claims filed due to water damage or storms. If you are buying in an area that has experienced tropical storms and hurricanes before, you should talk to the neighbors in the community where you want to buy to see what their experience was like going through the storm.”
You can also check whether the house has any stormproofing.
“Ask if the properties you are considering have any hurricane shutters as well as any particular stormproofing,” says Ameer. “Also examine the proximity to trees to the property as these can become uprooted or wind can cause damage to them.”
“Homebuyers should request a CLUE report on the property from the homeowner’s insurance agent,” advises Texas real estate agent Wendy Flynn. This report provides a history of all homeowners insurance claims on a property.
If you can’t resist moving to a hurricane-prone area, Flynn also recommends investing in an independent generator.
And because hurricanes aren’t just about wind, she also recommends getting flood insurance. Also consider investing in a new roof if your house is more than 5 years old, which will withstand hurricane winds much better than older ones.
“Keep a relatively low deductible on your homeowners insurance,” she recommends. “It’s not a case of if you will need it, but more so a question of when you will need it.”
